May 22, 2026 — 2:30 PM. This could be the wettest Memorial Day weekend in 78 years. NYC Emergency Management has issued a heavy rain advisory for Saturday, May 23 through Sunday, May 24 as the National Weather Service forecasts 2 to 4 inches of rain with thunderstorms. PIX11 meteorologist Mike Masco found that if NYC tops 2.75 inches this weekend, it would surpass the 1948 Memorial Day weekend record (2.55 inches at Central Park). This comes just two days after severe storms dropped 6 inches on parts of the city, opening sinkholes and flooding subway stations.
Source: NotifyNYC (@NotifyNYC) — Official NYC Emergency Management alert.
Could Break a 78-Year Record
PIX11 meteorologist Mike Masco did the historical analysis this morning:
“When you look at the ENTIRE holiday weekend as a whole, this could end up being the wettest Memorial Day Weekend since 1948. On May 30, 1948, Central Park recorded 2.49 inches of rain followed by another 0.06 inches on Memorial Day itself. If NYC officially tops 2.75+ inches of rain this weekend, it would rank as the wettest Memorial Day weekend on record.”
Source: Mike Masco (@MikeMasco), PIX11 News — 543 likes, 62 retweets as of publication.
With the NWS forecasting 2–4 inches across the weekend and the current forecast leaning toward the higher end, Masco’s 2.75-inch threshold is well within range.
What the Forecast Says
The National Weather Service’s New York office (NWS OKX) is forecasting a prolonged rain event across the NYC metro area and Long Island:
| Period | Precipitation | Wind | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday Night | Rain developing after 5 AM | E 12–15 mph | Low 51°F |
| Saturday | Rain, steady through afternoon | E 13–18 mph | High 56°F |
| Saturday Night | Heavy rain + thunderstorms | E 20–24 mph | Low 51°F |
| Sunday | Rain + thunderstorms continuing | E 13–24 mph | High 62°F |
| Sunday Night | Rain tapering off by 8 PM | NE 6–12 mph | Low 56°F |
Rainfall totals: 1–2 inches Saturday night, another 1–2 inches Sunday. Combined with Saturday daytime rain, 2 to 4 inches total is realistic across the region.
Wind: Sustained east winds of 20–24 mph Saturday night could create coastal flooding concerns on the South Shore of Long Island and Jamaica Bay.
Why This Matters More Than Usual
Normally, 2–4 inches over 36 hours is manageable. Not this week. Here’s why:
The Ground Is Already Saturated
Tuesday night’s storm dropped up to 6 inches on parts of NYC and Long Island in just a few hours. The ground hasn’t recovered. Soil moisture levels are elevated across the entire metro area, which means:
- Less absorption — rain that would normally soak into the ground will run off into storm drains, streets, and low-lying areas
- Higher flood risk at lower rainfall totals — it won’t take 6 inches to flood this time; 2 inches on saturated ground can do it
- Tree fall risk — root systems in waterlogged soil lose grip; combine that with 20+ mph winds and you get downed trees
NYC Sewer System Already at Capacity
NYC DEP confirmed this week that the city’s combined sewer system was running at 340% of design capacity during Tuesday’s storm. The system was engineered for 1.75 inches per hour. It got 6 inches per hour in some neighborhoods.
Even at the lower rain rates forecast for this weekend (0.5–1 inch per hour during heavy bursts), the system will be pushed hard again on already-stressed infrastructure.
Four Sinkholes in Eight Days
The ground is literally falling apart:
- LaGuardia Airport — sinkhole swallowed an SUV (May 14)
- Grand Central Parkway — road collapsed near LGA (May 17)
- Jamaica, Queens — sinkhole on residential street (May 19)
- Brooklyn (Classon & Park Ave) — sinkhole opened yesterday (May 21)
More rain on saturated, compromised subgrade means more potential ground failures.
Memorial Day Travel Advisory
If you’re driving this weekend — whether heading to the Hamptons, Jones Beach, Fire Island, or anywhere on the LIE — plan accordingly:
Before you leave:
- Check 511NY and longislandtraffic.com for real-time road conditions
- Fill up on gas — stations lose power in storms
- Charge your phone fully
On the road:
- Reduce speed in rain — hydroplaning is the #1 cause of wet-weather crashes on Long Island expressways
- Headlights ON — NYS law requires headlights when wipers are in use
- Don’t drive through standing water — 6 inches of moving water can knock you off your feet; 12 inches can float a car
- The LIE, Southern State, and Sunrise Highway all have known flood-prone spots (see our road guides for details)
If flooding occurs:
- Turn around, don’t drown — this is not a slogan, it’s the #1 flood safety rule
- Move to higher ground if you’re in a basement or ground-floor apartment
- Avoid subway stations during active flooding — Tuesday’s subway waterfall video should be all the convincing you need
What NYC Emergency Management Says
From the NotifyNYC alert:
“NYers are encouraged to prepare for potential heavy rain impacting NYC from Sat, 5/23 to Sun, 5/24. During periods of heavy rain causing flooding, move to higher ground. If in a basement, move to a higher floor. If you must travel, use caution.”
Additional resources:
- NYC Emergency Management: NYC.gov/emergencymanagement
- NWS New York: weather.gov/okx
- NotifyNYC alerts: Sign up at notify.nyc.gov
We’ll Be Watching
Long Island Traffic will be monitoring conditions throughout the weekend. If this escalates — and given Tuesday’s performance, the threshold for problems is now much lower — we’ll have live coverage.
Follow our live incident feed for real-time updates.
This is a developing weather story. Forecast data from NWS OKX as of 2:30 PM EDT, May 22, 2026.