DATA JOURNALISM · MAY 2026

The 15 Most Dangerous Towns on Long Island

By Dr. Dao Yuan Han, PhD Mathematics · Data Editor & Lead Analyst · Last computed May 28, 2026 at 11:12 AM

A 90-day composite ranking of Nassau and Suffolk County towns with the highest reported-incident concentration per 1,000 residents. Same methodology as our paired Safest Towns report — inverse ranking, no small-sample filter. A snapshot of where police-blotter activity is currently concentrated, NOT a verdict on long-term safety. Read the Methodology section before drawing relocation conclusions.

252 incidents analyzed 60 crime reports 45 towns surveyed 90-day rolling window

The Top 15 by Incident Concentration

Sorted descending by composite incident score per 1,000 residents (methodology). Click any town for the full local incident history.

  1. #1

    Hempstead

    Nassau County · Population 55,247 · Composite 15.274
    DCJS Index Crime: 17.5/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 6.37
    37 recent reports 8 crime-classified 3 Impaired Driving 1 Burglary & Theft 2 Drug Crime
  2. #2

    Riverhead

    Suffolk County · Population 33,422 · Composite 13.296
    DCJS Index Crime: 16.5/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 0.48
    3 recent reports 2 crime-classified 1 Arrests 1 Impaired Driving
  3. #3

    Amityville

    Suffolk County · Population 9,500 · Composite 12.442
    DCJS Index Crime: 15.5/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 0.21
    1 recent reports
  4. #4

    Freeport

    Nassau County · Population 43,713 · Composite 10.91
    DCJS Index Crime: 13.5/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 0.55
    3 recent reports 2 crime-classified 1 Drug Crime 1 Arrests
  5. #5

    Garden City

    Nassau County · Population 22,371 · Composite 9.79
    DCJS Index Crime: 11.5/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 2.95
    6 recent reports 2 crime-classified 1 Arrests 1 Burglary & Theft
  6. #6

    Brentwood

    Suffolk County · Population 62,000 · Composite 9.768
    DCJS Index Crime: 12/1,000 precinct-scaled 90-day signal: 0.84
    5 recent reports 3 crime-classified 2 Impaired Driving 1 Arrests
  7. #7

    Patchogue

    Suffolk County · Population 12,440 · Composite 9.765
    DCJS Index Crime: 11/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 4.82
    9 recent reports 5 crime-classified 4 Impaired Driving 1 Arrests
  8. #8

    Bay Shore

    Suffolk County · Population 26,380 · Composite 9.261
    DCJS Index Crime: 11.5/1,000 precinct-scaled 90-day signal: 0.30
    2 recent reports 1 crime-classified 1 Arrests
  9. #9

    Westbury

    Nassau County · Population 15,000 · Composite 8.533
    DCJS Index Crime: 9/1,000 precinct-scaled 90-day signal: 6.67
    9 recent reports 2 crime-classified 2 Impaired Driving
  10. #10

    Mineola

    Nassau County · Population 20,558 · Composite 8.156
    DCJS Index Crime: 10/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 0.78
    1 recent reports
  11. #11

    Farmingdale

    Nassau County · Population 8,800 · Composite 7.973
    DCJS Index Crime: 9/1,000 precinct-scaled 90-day signal: 3.86
    5 recent reports 1 crime-classified 1 Impaired Driving
  12. #12

    Islip

    Suffolk County · Population 335,543 · Composite 7.615
    DCJS Index Crime: 9.5/1,000 estimated 90-day signal: 0.08
    8 recent reports
  13. #13

    Long Beach

    Nassau County · Population 34,006 · Composite 7.318
    DCJS Index Crime: 9/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 0.59
    2 recent reports 1 crime-classified 1 Arrests
  14. #14

    Hicksville

    Nassau County · Population 41,547 · Composite 7.209
    DCJS Index Crime: 8/1,000 precinct-scaled 90-day signal: 4.04
    9 recent reports 5 crime-classified 2 Homicide 1 Arrests 1 Impaired Driving
  15. #15

    Brookhaven

    Suffolk County · Population 486,040 · Composite 7.205
    DCJS Index Crime: 9/1,000 estimated 90-day signal: 0.03
    3 recent reports 1 crime-classified 1 Impaired Driving

Methodology

Same methodology as our paired Safest Towns report: weighted severity per 1,000 residents over a 90-day rolling window. The full table of category weights, formula, source list, and limitations is published there. This report inverts the ranking and uses a lower data-quality floor (pop. ≥ 1,000 + ≥ 2 incidents, instead of 5,000 + 3) because the "most dangerous" question is meaningful even for small communities with elevated incident concentration — whereas the "safest" question would over-reward under-surveyed towns.

What this report IS: a snapshot of where police-blotter activity is currently concentrated, useful for context on relocation research, school-visit prioritization, and "what's been happening this quarter" questions.

What this report IS NOT:

  • NOT a verdict on long-term safety trends.
  • NOT comparable to the FBI Uniform Crime Reports (which use authoritative methodology but lag 12-18 months).
  • NOT a substitute for the NY Division of Criminal Justice Services official statistics.
  • NOT a recommendation against any town. Many towns appearing in this report have specific causal factors (a busy commuter parkway, a major retail corridor, a hospital catchment zone) that drive reported-incident counts without reflecting day-to-day resident experience.

For relocation decisions, use this report as ONE input alongside official statistics, school records, personal visits, and local-realtor counsel.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's the most dangerous town on Long Island?

Based on the 5-year NY DCJS Index Crime baseline (2019-2023) blended with current 90-day activity, Hempstead (Nassau County, pop. 55,247) ranks #1 most-dangerous with a composite score of 15.274 — anchored on a DCJS Index Crime rate of 17.5 per 1,000 residents. Hempstead Village, Riverhead Town, Freeport Village, and Amityville Village consistently appear in the top 5 of every published DCJS year. Our ranking reflects that structural truth, not just news-cycle noise.

How do you calculate "most dangerous"?

Composite score = 0.80 × NY DCJS Index Crime baseline + 0.20 × current 90-day signal. The baseline is the 5-year average (2019-2023) Index Crime rate per 1,000 residents from official DCJS UCR submissions by Nassau County PD, Suffolk County PD, and incorporated village PDs (Hempstead, Freeport, Garden City, Amityville, Patchogue, Riverhead, etc.). Index Crime covers the 7 FBI Part I offenses: murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft. Hamlet rates inferred from precinct-level data (for areas covered by NCPD or SCPD rather than a village PD) are clearly flagged in each town card.

Should I make a relocation decision based on this report?

Use this as a screening tool, not a final answer. The DCJS Index Crime data we anchor on IS the multi-year official truth (same source the FBI publishes in Crime in the U.S.), so the ranking direction is correct. But individual blocks within a town vary widely — Hempstead Village's rate is dominated by a few hot blocks near the bus terminal; the rest of the village is quieter. Always cross-reference with school-district safety records, a personal visit at different times of day, and the most recent annual DCJS report at criminaljustice.ny.gov.

Why does Garden City show such a high rate?

Roosevelt Field Mall. The mall is inside Garden City Village PD's jurisdiction, and its retail larceny incidents (shoplifting from Macy's, Bloomingdale's, Apple, etc.) count toward the village's Index Crime total. Residential crime in Garden City is much lower than the headline rate suggests. Same pattern shows up in Riverhead (Tanger Outlets), Mineola (downtown commercial), and Long Beach (boardwalk + beach summer larceny). When evaluating a town for residential safety, look at the per-category breakdown in each town card — if 70%+ is larceny, the headline rate is being inflated by commercial activity, not residential danger.

How is this different from a Niche.com or similar list?

Niche and similar consumer-facing ranking sites blend crime data with school quality, cost of living, walkability, etc. into a single "best places" score — useful as a starting point but you can't isolate the safety signal. We publish only the safety dimension, anchored on the official DCJS Index Crime data, with a transparent formula and reproducible methodology. If a publication ranks Manhasset and Brentwood at similar safety levels, ours doesn't — because DCJS doesn't.

How often does this ranking update?

Every 2-4 hours via the longislandtraffic.com autopilot rebuild cycle. The 90-day recent-signal layer rolls forward continuously; the DCJS baseline updates annually when the new state report drops (typically June for the prior calendar year). When we update the baseline, the file at src/data/long-island-crime-baseline.ts in our repo is the single source of truth and the change is logged in our git history.

How often does this ranking update?

Every 2-4 hours via the longislandtraffic.com autopilot rebuild cycle. The 90-day window rolls forward continuously, so the rankings reflect the most recent 3 months of data at every refresh.